Not very often do we see 7'1 bigs capable of consistently shooting 3s from NBA range, much less when it comes to 19 year olds. This is the main reason why I consider power forward Kristaps Porzingis one of the most intriguing prospects in this year´s NBA Draft and have therefore decided to break down his strengths and weaknesses.
Strengths
Shooting. As I mentioned above, the Latvian power forward has a great shooting stroke, along with a quick release, making him a constant threat from 3, especially in catch and shoot situations. He has managed to hit 37'8% of his 3s. The European 3-point line is further than the college 3-point line, and has hit numerous 3s from NBA range this season, as well as during his pre-Draft workouts in recent weeks. His outside shot is by far his most transferable skill to the NBA. He is also a solid free throw shooter, at 73% this past season.
Mobility. Porzingis has a unique combination of length and mobility at the power forward position. Standing at 7'1, with long arms, the 19 year old possesses outstanding speed and quickness for a player his size.
On offense, he is confident and capable enough to put the ball on the floor and drive to the rim looking to dunk on defenders with his above average vertical leap. His mobility enables him to constantly beat his defender without the ball, as well as being a great fit for pick-n-pop sets. On defense, his lateral quickness again makes him a good defensive player on pick-n-roll situations, as he can switch and keep the guard in front of him.
Length. He effectively utilizes his length to block shots and steal lazy passes (1.5 steals and 2 blocks per 40 minutes this season), although he lacks concentration on the defensive end way too many times.
Weaknesses
Physique. It is without question the biggest liability in Porzingis' game. At 220 pounds, his thin frame means he will be pushed around in the paint when hitting the glass and that he will be unable to consistently finish inside, or even catch the ball deep in the low post.
For the sake of comparing, Pau Gasol and Dirk Nowitzki have 30 pounds and 25 pounds on him, respectively. However, on the bright side of things, we must take into account that Porzingis has not even turned 20 yet, and strength training in Europe does not come close to the workouts he will go through once he gets drafted. In conclusion, adding 15-18 pounds of muscle will likely improve his rebounding numbers without having a negative impact on his mobility and shooting stroke.
Lack of a post game. His lack of strenth combined with his shooting translate into an outside threat rather than a post player. Not only does he lack a variety of post moves, but the lack of muscle forces him to aviod the low post and settle for jumpshots. However, he is only 19, and has already been working on his post game prior to Thursday´s Draft. If he manages to gain 15-20 pounds and develop a few post moves he will be able to use his height to his advantage and become an offensive force in the NBA, as there are very few players who have the ability to be a threat both inside and outside.
Lack of concentration on defense. Porzingis can use his length to block shots, but that does not make him by any means a solid defensive player. He is often late on the weakside help, sometimes with his back completely turned to the ball handler. His subpar strength, and sometimes lack of attitude, make him a below-average rebounder, as he sometimes does not even box out his opponent on the defensive end.
Lack of court vision. The Latvian is not a good passer, having only accumulated 41 assists over the last 3 years, or one every 44 minutes. His assist percentage is one of the lowest amonst this year's Draft class.
Where will he land? Will he be a difference maker?
Both DraftExpress and NBA.com have Porzingis being taken by the Knicks with the fourth pick. However, I do not think he will be a great fit for the Knicks for various reasons.
Kristaps Porzingis is a high risk-high reward player. He has a ton of upside, but he is far from a finished product, as he will need 2-3 years of playing time before he can truly make an impact. The Knicks just don´t have that amount of time before they can make it back to the Playoffs. Having resigned Carmelo Anthony, playing in the nation's largest market and having Phil Jackson involved essentially means they will be drafting somebody who will be able to contribute right away.
Considering there is unanimity that Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor will be the top two picks, I would not be shocked if Porzingis fell to 5 or 6, since the Sixers have an already loaded frontcourt of young players (Embiid, Noel and Saric) and the Knicks need an instant contributor. The Orlando Magic or the Sacramento Kings would both be a great fit for Porzingis, as he will primarily play as a stretch-4, leaving room inside for Nikola Vucevic or DeMarcus Cousins to operate on offense. Moreover, he would be landing on a team in the middle of a slower rebuilding process, therefore being able to play consistent minutes and develop into the great player he will eventually become.
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